UNDER CONSTRUCTION
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Global Warming could cause Global Cooling!
The Climatic-Seismic Hypothesis.
©2011 copyright Auke Schade
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CONTENTS
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Abstract
Introduction
Discussion
Data
Hypothetical consequences
Postings on Facebook
Correspondence
Links
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ABSTRACT
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The Climatic-Seismic Hypothesis holds that Global Warming causes Global Cooling through seismic activity. Global Warming has been melting polar and mountainous ice. Gravity and planetary spin force that melt water disproportionally to the equator. This causes a planetary redistribution of weight from the poles to the equator, which will affect the movements of the tectonic plates. As a result, the frequency and magnitude of seismic activities such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions will increase. High altitude volcanic ash will block the sunlight and triggers a period of Global Cooling lasting 80,000 years. The transformation from warm to cold might come very fast.
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INTRODUCTION
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In my letter of 7 June 2002, I warned the former Prime Minister the Rt. Hon. Helen Clark: "Extraordinary shifts in the Earth’s weight distribution from the poles to the equator are likely to disturb the tectonic plates. This would cause an increase in earthquakes and volcanic activity."
Much attention is given to the negative effect of manmade greenhouse gasses on Global Warming. Despite all the horrors of industrial pollution, we should look at the facts. Data derived from the Antarctic Vostok ice-core show that Global Warming is in principle a natural phenomenon. Including the current warm period, there have been five periods of Global Warming during the last 420,000 years. Four of these periods were definitively not caused by industrial pollution and nevertheless, some show higher temperatures than recorded nowadays.
Neither natural nor manmade CO2 is just a nuisance that creates Global Warming. Trees need CO2 in order to grow and therefore, humanity plant trees to reduce the atmospheric CO2 and the threat of Global Warming. Without atmospheric CO2, plants would not grow and we would die from starvation. In addition, CO2 keeps the temperature comfortable. The Vostok data show a cycle of cold and warm periods, with a peak to peak duration of about 100,000 years. The warm periods last about 20,000 years, while peak temperatures last about 1,000 years. In contrast, a cold period, or ice age, last about 80,000 years, with an average temperature of about eight degrees Celsius below the current temperature. The duration of each period suggests that the normal state of our planet is cold, rather than the nice warm period we live in. In general, the threat of Global Cooling is more likely than the threat of Global Warming. The Vostok data suggest also that temperatures at the current level are unstable and in the past, such peak temperatures indicated the end of a warm period. Greenhouse gasses such as CO2, form a protective atmospheric heat trap that prevents the Earth to cool down. Consequently, we should carefully question the decision to remove that protective blanket.
Scientific records suggest that the global atmospheric temperature increased during the last century. The main argument among scientists and politicians is whether this increase is caused by nature or human pollution. Although interesting from a scientific point, the outcome is unimportant for my argument. I we accept that these data show indeed an increase in global atmospheric temperatures, then common sense forces us also to accept that land and sea ice has been melting for at least a century.
Gravity will force all melt water to the oceans and therefore, it will increase sea levels. In addition, just like a washing machine, planetary spin will force that water disproportionally towards the equator. Melting sea ice will not directly increase the sea levels, while planetary spin will not significantly affect sea ice. However, the melt water of sea ice is also subject to planetary spin. Hence, both land and sea ice, add to the shift in planetary weight from the poles towards the equator. This shift in planetary weight is likely to affect the movements of the tectonic plates, causing seismic activities such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions.
The Climatic-Seismic Hypothesis holds that volcanic eruptions will create high altitude ashes that prevent sufficient sunlight to reach the protective heat trap of greenhouse gasses.
Consequently, despite the current high concentrations of such gasses, the atmospheric heat trap would simply cease to work properly. The heat will never reach the trap and therefore, the atmospheric temperature will drop immediately. The resulting cold is likely to extend the ice towards the equator and lower altitudes. This growing area of white ice will increase the reflection of the little sunlight that reaches the surface and therefore, it will decrease the temperature even further. Such a prolonged cold would destroy much of the biomass producing greenhouse gasses. Therefore, the atmospheric heat trap would be damaged for a long time. The effects of blocked sunlight, increased heat reflection, and a damaged heat trap would strengthen each other. This transformation of nature could happen in a relatively short period. Apparently, ice has already withdrawn significantly, while seismic activity seems to be rather high.
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DATA
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DISCUSSION
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A hypothesis is a basis for reasoning and discussion without any assumption about the truth of that statement. Hence, the Climate-Earthquake Hypothesis should be subjected to rigorous scientific testing, which will either refuse or support this idea. These scientific tests are crucial for our future, because if this hypothesis is true, then it might affect current policies concerning Climate Change and Earthquakes. Scientists and politicians might have the right answers for the wrong problems.
I do not know whether the reported increases in CO2 and atmospheric temperature are statistically significant. They might be random effects. Neither do I know whether nature or human activities cause these increases. These problems comprise many variables with complex interactions, while the data collection period is extremely short. Therefore, more data have to be collected and many analyses have to be completed before scientists can provide reliable answers on these questions. As the public presses for solutions, arguments between scientists have become politicized, overshadowing the real problems humanity has to face in the near future.
It could be argued that the weight of melt water that has shifted to the equator is very small in comparison to the weight of the tectonic plates. However, Laozi points out in his famous book Daodejing that nature is a composition of an infinite number of balances. He warns us that even a relatively small change in these balances might have large and unpredictable consequences. His warnings are relevant to our current predicaments. For example, CO2 levels maintained a relative thermal balance between energy entering and leaving our atmosphere. However, during the last century, atmospheric CO2 increased with about two hundred particles per million. Allegedly, this small increase in CO2 caused an increase in atmospheric temperature of about 0.5 degrees Celsius over a period of 50 years. That is about 0.01 degrees Celsius per year. That is not much! Similarly, the shift of melt water towards the equator might be relatively small. However, even this tiny redistribution of planetary weight could affect the tectonic balance and cause a significant increase in seismic activities. In the same way, as minute increases in CO2 seem to have disturbed the climatic balances.
Increasing sea levels and seismic activities seem to support the Climate-Earthquake Hypothesis. Climate Change has become a hot political topic that absorbs huge amounts of money. However, policies concerning carbon taxes, carbon credits, and emission schemes might be outdated before they are applied. It is not excluded that nature has moved on from Global Warming to Global Cooling. In that case, we should adjust our climate strategies. However, Laozi points out that we should be extremely careful with such interventions, because no one can predict which underlying balances might be disturbed. Reducing greenhouse gasses might accelerate Global Cooling in the same way, as industrial greenhouse gasses accelerated Global Warming.
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HYPOTHETICAL CONSEQUENCES
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1. Climate Change remains a serious threat to humanity.
2. Weight redistribution from the poles to the equator has reached a critical magnitude.
3. Seismic activity has become a long term process, rather than a series of random events.
4. Transformation from warm to cold will happen relatively fast.
5. Nature has reached the point of no return and is shifting to Global Cooling.
6. Global Cooling is the new threat, rather than Global Warming.
7. Reversal from cold to warm will take about 80,000 years.
8. Emission trading schemes are counterproductive and accelerate Global Cooling.
9. Global Cooling will decrease the temperature. Some might explain this incorrectly as a success of trading emission schemes.
10. High altitude volcanic ash blocks sunlight and therefore, increases the cold.
11. High altitude volcanic ash immobilizes the atmospheric heat trap.
12. Cold destroys the atmospheric heat trap and therefore, increases the cold.
13. Cold increases the area of heat reflecting ice and therefore, increases the cold.
14. Cold will decrease the humidity and increase precipitation, causing floods.
15. High altitude volcanic ash makes most airplanes uneconomic.
16. There are insufficient ships to take over the cargo air transport.
17. Prolonged seismic activity makes the rebuilding of some cities uneconomic.
18. Cold makes currently habitable areas uninhabitable.
19. Cold destroys harvests.
20. Cold increases the demand for heating, depleting energy reserves.
21. Frozen lakes and tributaries decrease the supply of hydro energy.
22. Ice will set on propellers decreasing the supply of wind farm energy.
23. Cold disrupt road and sea transport.
24. Humanity needs reliable information about Climate Change.
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LINKS
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I invite you to become my facebook friend and join my mission to make all people the best thinkers they can be. For more information and progress concerning the Climate-Earthquake hypothesis, Dynamic Mind Management™, Dynamic Thinking, Laozi's Daodejing, Climate Change, and analyses of the Antarctic Ice [Click here].
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Cheers,
Dr. Auke Schade
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